Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2a0a…75ac sports 403 markets active 5h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$349 (+1%) realized +$360 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%206W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$591est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$548
7 days−$276
14 days−$653
30 days−$1,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.7% -13.7% 51% 49% -16.2%
≤30d 185 -8.1% -16.9% 48% 46% -19.8%
≤90d 402 +0.3% -9.3% 51% 50% -9.9%
all 402 +0.3% -9.3% 51% 50% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 50% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 50% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 49% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 46% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$94 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses206 / 196
Est. fees paid−$591
Open positions1
Markets (closed)402 / 403
History coverage82d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 35¢ $34 $23 −$11 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $103 +$75 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $34 +$27 +78%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $34 +$24 +71%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $35 +$44 +126%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $52 +$29 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $34 +$31 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $34 +$27 +77%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $103 +$38 +36%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $34 +$28 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $104 +$131 +126%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $103 +$65 +63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $35 +$30 +88%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $34 +$26 +74%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $35 +$30 +87%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $104 +$155 +149%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $104 +$165 +159%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $35 +$28 +80%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $103 +$94 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $104 +$92 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $34 +$27 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $35 +$33 +94%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $104 +$94 +91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $103 +$97 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $36 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $36 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $36 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $36 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $36 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $21 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $21 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $21 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $21 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $21 13h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $21 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $21 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $21 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $21 17h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $21 19h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $52 35h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $52 35h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 95¢ $12 37h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 92¢ $59 37h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 95¢ $12 37h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 95¢ $12 37h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 95¢ $12 37h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 95¢ $13 37h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 94¢ $16 37h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 94¢ $16 37h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 94¢ $16 37h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 94¢ $16 37h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 94¢ $16 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $7 39h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $7 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.98 · official $22.98 (match) · 2811 history records