Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

2A 0x2a0b…e52d other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,101 (+7%) realized +$2,127 · open −$1,026

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Whale WR20%big bets

Drawdown78%max

Avg bet$728per market

Trades / day10.1pace

Fees−$148est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$1,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+8.6%	-1.8%	41%	41%	-5.1%
≤30d	17	+8.6%	-1.8%	41%	41%	-5.1%
≤90d	17	+8.6%	-1.8%	41%	41%	-5.1%
all	17	+8.6%	-1.8%	41%	41%	-5.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.1 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.8%	41%	-5.1%
10% ← realistic here	-11.2%	35%	-14.2%
15%	-19.8%	35%	-22.5%
20%	-27.6%	29%	-30.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 20% (≥$634) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +20% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$441 vs −$257 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$1,235

Realized+$2,127

Unrealized−$1,026

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)20%

Est. fees paid−$148

Open positions4

Markets (closed)17 / 21

History coverage6d

Avg bet$728

Trades / day10.1

Drawdown78%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$799	$806	+$7 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$462	$426	−$36 (-8%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$500	$2	−$498 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$500	$1	−$499 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$3,001	−$458	-15%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$205	−$25	-12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$507	−$24	-5%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$205	+$307	+149%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$102	−$5	-5%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$205	−$200	-97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$508	+$60	+12%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$506	+$300	+59%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1,509	−$1,487	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$487	−$302	-62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,000	−$24	-2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1,356	+$1,254	+92%
Korea Republic to win the second half?	Jun 12	$589	+$766	+130%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime?	Jun 12	$284	+$305	+107%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$634	−$45	-7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$232	+$96	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	31¢	$451	9m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	19¢	$451	9m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	19¢	$332	18m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	28¢	$324	19m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	29¢	$715	20m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	19¢	$615	25m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	19¢	$317	26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	31¢	$204	55m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$205	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	47¢	$508	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$512	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$308	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	54¢	$2,226	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	9¢	$159	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	12¢	$180	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	8¢	$194	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$184	10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	16¢	$183	10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$182	10h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	13¢	$181	10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$1,010	10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$406	10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	52¢	$483	10h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$205	10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	8¢	$206	11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	11¢	$205	11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$205	11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	53¢	$507	11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$507	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,234.89 · official $1,300.95 · 63 history records