Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a0b…a453 crypto 16 markets active 5d ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$958per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% +$27
crypto 0% +$1
other 0% −$5
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤90d 11 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 9% -5.3%
all 13 -3.7% -12.9% 92% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 8% -9.4%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage128d
Avg bet$958
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? May 18 $12 $0 +3%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 18 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 18 $5 $0 +10%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Apr 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 29 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Mar 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 05 $15,192 +$27 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.70 · official $23.70 (match) · 28 history records