Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a0c…a35a world 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-1%) realized −$176 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%41W / 79L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$403
7 days+$1,074
14 days−$213
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$1,422
other 26% +$1,487
sports 3% +$116
politics 2% −$219
crypto 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +34.4% +21.6% 60% 48% +9.9%
≤30d 42 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 36% -11.6%
≤90d 91 +6.8% -3.4% 37% 29% -15.5%
all 120 +10.8% +0.3% 34% 27% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 27% -9.4%
10% -9.3% 24% -18.1%
15% -18.1% 20% -26.0%
20% -26.1% 17% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$84 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses41 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage203d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $470 +$120 +26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$71 -69%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 24 $324 +$104 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $686 +$348 +51%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $155 −$7 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $601 +$47 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$95 +134%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $174 −$123 -71%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $82 −$80 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $702 +$22 +3%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $56 +$16 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $310 +$117 +38%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $62 +$367 +596%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $87 +$12 +14%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $75 −$8 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $440 −$367 -83%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $703 +$97 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$575 +560%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,129 +$143 +7%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 −$7 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $723 +$62 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$11 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -44%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $710 −$690 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 +$7 +13%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 11 $700 −$609 -87%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $219 −$125 -57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $92 −$77 -83%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $588 −$160 -27%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $46 +$81 +176%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $127 +$82 +64%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $100 −$88 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 27 $52 −$47 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $297 −$297 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $62 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $29 +$3 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $207 −$119 -57%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $47 −$25 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $590 4m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 27m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $429 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 75¢ $324 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $470 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,034 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $124 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $215 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $67 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $648 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 20h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $31 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $71 43h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 43h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 43h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $82 44h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $143 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $724 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 23¢ $73 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $702 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $56 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $427 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $98 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $88 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.62 · official $217.62 (match) · 443 history records