Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a0f…7e40 weather 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%94W / 7L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$5
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 84 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 101 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.55 per $1 lost it wins $34.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses94 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage125d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? Jun 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 6? Jun 07 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27? May 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ma May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 17? May 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $116 38h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $115 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $115 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $65 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $115 4d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $115 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $115 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $67 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $49 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $115 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $115 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $77 12d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $114 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $115 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $114 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $101 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $114 16d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $114 17d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $113 18d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $103 19d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $113 19d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $102 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.53 · official $115.53 (match) · 204 history records