Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a12…37ca sports 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$51
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$12
other 26% −$39
culture 11% +$31
finance 5% −$33
crypto 2% −$18
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -14.5% -22.7% 44% 40% +0.9%
≤30d 100 -26.6% -33.6% 37% 34% -12.3%
≤90d 100 -26.6% -33.6% 37% 34% -12.3%
all 100 -26.6% -33.6% 37% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 34% -12.3%
10% -40.0% 27% -20.7%
15% -45.8% 25% -28.4%
20% -51.1% 19% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 63
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage14d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -81%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 17 $14 −$5 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $41 +$6 +15%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$5 +66%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -91%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $27 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $6 +$12 +203%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $52 −$42 -80%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $53 +$8 +15%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $33 +$12 +36%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $18 +$14 +78%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +79%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -82%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 14 $6 +$11 +170%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$6 +206%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$4 +20%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $33 +$2 +5%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$17 +185%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $20 −$15 -73%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$8 +260%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $68 +$77 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$9 -88%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 20¢ $9 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $34 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 14h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 14h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $28 19h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 31¢ $14 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 24h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 41h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.34 · official $4.34 (match) · 229 history records