Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a14…e0fb sports 716 markets active 4d ago coverage 184d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 184d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,072 (-2%) realized −$28,080 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate73%508W / 186L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$2,393per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 184d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$17,705
politics 38% −$146
economics 7% +$297
tech 1% −$141
other 0% −$9
sports 0% −$1,437
world 0% $0
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -9.4% -18.1% 51% 16% -9.8%
≤90d 149 -49.7% -54.5% 35% 11% -9.8%
all 694 -12.3% -20.6% 73% 23% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 23% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 14% -17.3%
15% -35.1% 10% -25.3%
20% -41.5% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$14 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.25 per $1 lost it wins $7.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$3,102
Realized−$28,080
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses508 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)694 / 716
History coverage184d ⚠
Avg bet$2,393
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $800 $800 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $427 $440 +$12 (+3%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $342 $335 −$6 (-2%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $290 $291 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 95¢ $292 $284 −$9 (-3%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $155 $155 −$0 (-0%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $137 $135 −$2 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $90 $97 +$7 (+8%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+6%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $44 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $44 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $47 $44 −$3 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 96¢ 87¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32,179 −$19 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,380 −$4 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $9,519 −$142 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$11 +22%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $21,831 −$7 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $201,245 −$72 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 04 $961 −$961 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $67,478 −$22 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $325 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $1,202 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +38%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 29 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $23,793 −$9 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +25%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $19,846 −$6 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $6,997 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 25 $307 −$303 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $203 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $122 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $17,193 −$11 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $208 +$230 +110%
ITF Pelham: Katrina Scott vs Maria Florencia Urrutia May 23 $10 +$2 +20%
MLP Dallas: Orlando Squeeze vs Columbus Sliders May 23 $244 +$10 +4%
MLP Dallas: Carolina Hogs vs St. Louis Shock May 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 22 $111 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $8 $0 +5%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $19,846 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 17 $202 +$2 +1%
Zandschulp vs. Halys: Match O/U 22.5 May 17 $5 −$2 -50%
Bordeaux: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Quentin Halys May 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $8,445 −$4 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 30 $1 $0 -39%
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,734 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,727 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,935 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,980 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13,620 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $504 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $639 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $867 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $909 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $917 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $927 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $882 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $948 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $904 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,454 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,296 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,635 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,822 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,101.82 · official $3,101.49 (match) · 3500 history records