Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a14…f075 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$122 (+135%) realized −$5 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.1% +23.1% 50% 50% -21.3%
≤30d 2 +36.1% +23.1% 50% 50% -21.3%
≤90d 2 +36.1% +23.1% 50% 50% -21.3%
all 2 +36.1% +23.1% 50% 50% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 50% -21.3%
10% +11.3% 50% -28.8%
15% +0.6% 50% -35.7%
20% -9.3% 50% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 14¢ 50¢ $30 $112 +$82 (+272%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 17¢ 50¢ $12 $35 +$23 (+193%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 8¢ 50¢ $2 $15 +$12 (+531%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 13¢ 50¢ $3 $13 +$9 (+281%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$11 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$16 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.84 · official $174.84 (match) · 14 history records