Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a15…e238 sports 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$828 (-3%) realized −$850 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%123W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$389est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$164
14 days−$1,549
30 days−$981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$857
other 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -36.7% -42.8% 28% 28% -20.8%
≤30d 229 -12.4% -20.8% 38% 38% -15.5%
≤90d 298 -10.1% -18.6% 41% 41% -14.2%
all 298 -10.1% -18.6% 41% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -14.2%
10% -26.4% 41% -22.4%
15% -33.5% 38% -29.9%
20% -40.1% 31% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$71 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$850
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses123 / 175
Est. fees paid−$389
Open positions5
Markets (closed)298 / 303
History coverage43d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $60 $125 +$65 (+108%)
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Over 47¢ 35¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Las Vegas Aces 48¢ 32¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Over 44¢ 24¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 20¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$34 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$28 +140%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $122 +$171 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$31 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$132 +216%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$32 +104%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 12 $56 +$52 +93%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $51 −$18 -36%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $30 +$32 +105%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $61 +$33 +55%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 164.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $81 +$89 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 44¢ $30 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 3h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $30 11h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 11h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $20 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $20 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $20 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $20 26h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 34h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $20 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $20 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 10¢ $31 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 3d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 16¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $122 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $61 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $30 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $61 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $31 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 1¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 48¢ $30 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 26¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.95 · official $199.30 · 468 history records