Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a16…6f38 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$264 (-1%) realized −$351 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate68%77W / 36L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$2,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$28
14 days+$61
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$60
crypto 17% +$11
finance 7% +$4
sports 3% −$463
world 1% +$5
economics 1% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.9% -39.3% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 53 -12.5% -20.8% 72% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 113 -16.7% -24.6% 68% 6% -10.9%
all 113 -16.7% -24.6% 68% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 6% -10.9%
10% -31.8% 6% -19.4%
15% -38.4% 4% -27.2%
20% -44.5% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2,137
Realized−$351
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses77 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions45
Markets (closed)113 / 122
History coverage65d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,785 $1,783 −$2 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $76 $121 +$44 (+58%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $18 $44 +$25 (+140%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+1084%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-26%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$13 (+754%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+653%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+605%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+257%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+233%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+221%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $187 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $1,186 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $427 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $1,793 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,790 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $745 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $749 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $404 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $397 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $296 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $397 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $498 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $523 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $802 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $898 +$1 +0%
Will Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $16 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $496 +$1 +0%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch May 29 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $599 +$1 +0%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch May 29 $12 $0 -3%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest dome May 29 $1 $0 -15%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -3%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $300 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $299 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $199 $0 +0%
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? May 27 $17 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 27 $1,483 +$2 +0%
Will Brandon West be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? May 26 $4 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $598 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $598 +$1 +0%
Will Matt Fulmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? May 26 $1 $0 -52%
Will Francina Dantzler be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? May 26 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,786 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $54 25h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 29h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,194 38h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $429 38h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $187 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $427 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,186 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,798 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,793 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,795 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $27 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,790 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $695 6d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $92 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $91 7d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $745 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $245 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $687 9d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $405 9d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 9d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $238 9d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,136.66 · official $2,137.33 (match) · 415 history records