Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a17…8df6 crypto 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$618 (-3%) realized −$574 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate59%190W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$149
14 days+$269
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 32% −$215
other 26% −$213
crypto 19% −$254
politics 14% −$22
world 5% −$33
sports 2% −$14
culture 1% −$4
weather 1% −$3
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.5% -0.0% 71% 14% +0.7%
≤30d 43 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 21% -12.6%
≤90d 165 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 21% -12.0%
all 322 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 25% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 25% -12.3%
10% -22.9% 13% -20.7%
15% -30.4% 9% -28.3%
20% -37.2% 7% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$574
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses190 / 132
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)322 / 323
History coverage167d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Yes 32¢ 4¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $166 +$3 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $388 +$32 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $308 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $172 +$4 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $192 +$108 +56%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $60 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $187 +$15 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $66 +$106 +161%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 −$91 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $105 +$49 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $115 −$10 -9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $152 +$48 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 −$95 -69%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$12 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $144 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $402 −$8 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $125 −$120 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $405 −$114 -28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $552 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $379 +$18 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $644 +$20 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $81 −$18 -22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$20 +250%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $189 +$9 +5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$8 +18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $446 −$43 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $192 +$10 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $220 −$148 -67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $296 +$16 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $398 +$61 +15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $31 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $428 −$219 -51%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $373 +$33 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $122 +$4 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $304 −$48 -16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $255 +$36 +14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,150 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $777 +$69 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $88 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $253 +$3 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $21 +$9 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 42¢ $82 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 42¢ $1 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 42¢ $84 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 42¢ $0 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 42¢ $0 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 40¢ $165 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 61¢ $244 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 54¢ $216 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 66¢ $204 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 65¢ $205 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 62¢ $102 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $103 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 44¢ $176 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 15¢ $1 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 42¢ $172 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 19¢ $1 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 42¢ $168 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 41¢ $84 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 41¢ $80 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Down 76¢ $8 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 75¢ $8 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 78¢ $0 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 75¢ $101 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 75¢ $5 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 75¢ $26 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 75¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 75¢ $50 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 75¢ $117 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 48¢ $192 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.30 · official $6.30 (match) · 1275 history records