Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a1a…c549 politics 10 markets active 3h ago coverage 409d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$20,290 (-67%) realized −$18,719 · open −$1,571
Gross ROI / mkt +149% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,031per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,301
14 days−$1,301
30 days−$1,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$17,488
other 22% −$2,882
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+125.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -9.2% -17.8% 33% 33% -99.1%
≤90d 3 -9.2% -17.8% 33% 33% -99.1%
all 9 +149.2% +125.5% 33% 33% -77.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +125.5% 33% -77.8%
10% ← realistic here +103.9% 33% -79.9%
15% +84.2% 33% -81.8%
20% +66.2% 33% -83.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +149% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,834 vs −$4,050 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$3,643
Realized−$18,719
Unrealized−$1,571
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage409d
Avg bet$3,031
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,214 $3,643 −$1,571 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,317 −$1,301 -99%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +172%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Kore Jun 04 $397 +$3,613 +910%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Kor Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 04 $7,163 −$7,163 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2,063 −$2,063 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $13,745 −$13,745 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 03 $219 +$1,880 +860%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,959 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,317 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 34d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,138 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $73 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 52d
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea SELL No 100¢ $2,099 390d
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea BUY No 10¢ $63 390d
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Kore BUY Yes 10¢ $397 390d
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea BUY No 10¢ $156 390d
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Kor BUY Yes 16¢ $11 397d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 21¢ $105 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 21¢ $90 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 20¢ $322 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 19¢ $268 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 18¢ $383 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 17¢ $9 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 16¢ $16 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 16¢ $16 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 16¢ $3 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 16¢ $1 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 16¢ $16 398d
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele BUY Yes 16¢ $6 398d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,642.53 · official $3,642.53 (match) · 112 history records