Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a1d…86fb other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2
other 31% $0
politics 9% +$1
crypto 9% +$1
sports 6% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 3% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 3% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage472d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $65 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $15 $0 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump increase tariffs on China by Friday? Apr 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 07 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +37%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $15 −$2 -12%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $16 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 10h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $16 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $15 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $34 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $34 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.28 · official $31.28 (match) · 97 history records