Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a1d…f37a crypto 84 markets active 20h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$557 (+1%) realized +$542 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate98%81W / 2L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$13
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$263
other 11% +$183
economics 9% +$41
world 8% +$25
tech 4% +$24
finance 3% +$7
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 5% -8.7%
all 83 +1.4% -8.2% 98% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -8.2%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$779) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×57.14 per $1 lost it wins $57.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$772
Realized+$542
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses81 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage256d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $757 $772 +$15 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $807 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $332 +$8 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $1,240 +$18 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 08 $1,239 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $1,089 +$7 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 May 02 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? May 01 $115 +$9 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $371 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $278 +$9 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $1,086 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $622 +$2 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $511 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $1,190 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Apr 05 $270 +$19 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 04 $566 +$3 +0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $562 +$3 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Mar 17 $237 +$33 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $779 +$42 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 26 $54 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 25 $777 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Feb 12 $777 +$4 +0%
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? Feb 05 $493 +$47 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 03 $985 +$9 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Feb 01 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January? Feb 01 $650 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $274 +$18 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $514 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 16 $485 +$8 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 30 $534 +$5 +1%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Dec 29 $202 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $553 +$11 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $182 +$3 +1%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 10 $471 +$82 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 08 $103 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Dec 07 $81 +$5 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $10 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 29 $167 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 26 $538 +$14 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 24 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Nov 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Nov 20 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $319 20h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $304 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $304 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $767 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $338 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $1 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $1 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $122 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $304 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $202 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $202 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $202 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $807 24d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 97¢ $332 24d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $121 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,260 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,259 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,258 34d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,258 37d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1,240 42d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1,239 45d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1,239 47d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 SELL No 91¢ $16 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $123 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $115 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $771.68 · official $771.68 (match) · 290 history records