Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2A 0x2a1e…c023 sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$256 (+2%) realized +$256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%58W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$53
14 days−$72
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$474
other 13% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +6.3% -3.8% 43% 43% -7.8%
≤30d 74 +0.2% -9.3% 53% 49% -9.5%
≤90d 82 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 50% -6.4%
all 112 -1.1% -10.5% 52% 49% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 49% -7.2%
10% -19.1% 46% -16.0%
15% -26.9% 46% -24.2%
20% -34.0% 33% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$63 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses58 / 54
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage210d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $173 +$212 +123%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $182 +$39 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$59 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $173 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $120 +$50 +41%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $176 −$53 -30%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $340 −$164 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $105 +$94 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $89 +$110 +123%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $103 −$9 -9%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $209 +$141 +67%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $37 +$63 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $83 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $147 +$83 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $236 −$232 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 −$9 -10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$49 +96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $114 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $123 −$122 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$21 -35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $143 +$57 +40%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $104 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $167 +$83 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $121 +$78 +64%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $337 −$332 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $69 −$68 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $63 −$62 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $137 −$136 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $70 +$80 +115%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $47 −$46 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $97 +$102 +105%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $47 +$53 +114%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $55 +$45 +82%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $96 +$104 +109%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $49 +$51 +105%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $66 +$34 +51%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $43 +$57 +134%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $68 +$32 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $139 +$61 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $57 +$43 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 11m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 11m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $296 11m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 13m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 14m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 14m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 14m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $18 15m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 27m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $56 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $171 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $126 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $41 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $81 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $87 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $173 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $170 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $120 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL Spirit 32¢ $70 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL Spirit 32¢ $3 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL Spirit 32¢ $31 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL Spirit 38¢ $19 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $176 15h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $177 29h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 30h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 34h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.50 · official $46.50 (match) · 335 history records