Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2a1e…aa31 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%39W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$9
crypto 8% +$1
other 3% −$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 -0.7% -10.1% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses39 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage548d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 04 $41 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $40 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $5,280 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $16 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $17 $0 +3%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 16 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 10 $9 −$3 -33%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Jan 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 10 $12 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 09 $6 $0 -2%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next German electi Jan 09 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 92d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 120d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 121d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 150d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 150d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 181d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 210d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $22 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 99¢ $11 242d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 99¢ $29 243d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 302d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 362d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 363d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? BUY No 100¢ $5 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.31 · official $49.31 (match) · 113 history records