Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a21…b7ca other 58 markets active 5h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%13W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$13
politics 13% −$7
other 5% −$1
sports 1% −$28
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 12% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 43 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 14% -11.0%
all 57 -5.4% -14.4% 23% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 11% -9.8%
10% -22.6% 11% -18.4%
15% -30.1% 11% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses13 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage592d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $25 $0 -1%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +62%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +83%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $6 +$4 +59%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $11 +$8 +72%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blues Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $49 +$1 +2%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 27 $26 +$28 +108%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 23 $24 +$32 +133%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $94 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $13,553 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 4h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 7h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 31h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 35h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $9 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.44 · official $22.44 (match) · 247 history records