Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a23…eac6 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$19
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$26
sports 24% −$11
politics 21% −$14
crypto 14% −$9
economics 3% −$6
culture 3% −$3
world 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 64 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 103 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 128 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 109
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage107d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $113 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $429 $0 +0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $60 −$2 -4%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $36 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $46 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $268 −$7 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $29 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $93 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 03 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $256 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $766 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $159 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $64 53m
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $44 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 14h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $67 14h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $67 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 28h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $62 28h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $62 35h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 35h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 40h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $58 41h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $60 46h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $55 46h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $60 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $62 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.98 · official $62.98 (match) · 544 history records