Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a25…27b4 sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-6%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%52W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$26
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$21
other 28% −$17
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 38% -14.3%
≤30d 109 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 35% -15.6%
≤90d 109 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 35% -15.6%
all 109 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 35% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 35% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -23.6%
15% -31.7% 29% -31.0%
20% -38.4% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses52 / 57
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)109 / 113
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Haiti 64¢ 64¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 18¢ 18¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $7 +$4 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$17 +236%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$5 -68%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$4 +52%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $7 +$3 +42%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 −$4 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$4 -57%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $7 −$4 -57%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $7 −$4 -52%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $7 −$4 -61%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $7 +$5 +64%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 $0 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 −$5 -64%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $7 +$4 +58%
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Jun 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 $0 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $7 $0 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $7 +$5 +69%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $7 $0 -5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 +$8 +109%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $7 +$10 +140%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $7 −$3 -42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $7 −$3 -39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$3 -45%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 −$3 -39%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$7 +96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$4 -50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $7 +$4 +61%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $7 +$6 +89%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $7 $0 +4%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$1 -15%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $7 $0 -7%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $12 −$4 -29%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +61%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $5 −$3 -50%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $7 1m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $7 8m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 9m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $7 9m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $11 27m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 18¢ $7 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 14¢ $24 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No $7 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Qatar 18¢ $2 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 53¢ $7 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $7 19h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $7 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 70¢ $10 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $3 21h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 22h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $7 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 24¢ $3 23h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 52¢ $7 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 25h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 79¢ $12 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 27h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $7 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 39h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 80¢ $11 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.55 · official $27.55 (match) · 225 history records