Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a2c…9bc1
sports · 89 markets active 19h ago
0.0score
−$4,773,679 -144%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,816,371 · open +$47,528
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$295,872
Realized−$5,816,371
Unrealized+$47,528
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses73 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$26,190
Open positions42
Markets (closed)507 / 89
History coverage31d
Avg bet$37,179
Trades / day109.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 42 History 507 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,264,122
7 days−$6,264,122
14 days−$6,264,122
30 days−$6,499,526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $5,669 $57,659 +$51,990 (+917%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $7,592 $38,494 +$30,902 (+407%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $5,694 $35,704 +$30,010 (+527%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $5,694 $29,896 +$24,202 (+425%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $7,592 $19,771 +$12,179 (+160%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $5,459 $16,869 +$11,410 (+209%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7,592 $9,339 +$1,747 (+23%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 86¢ 19¢ $38,598 $8,478 −$30,120 (-78%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5,694 $8,371 +$2,677 (+47%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7,592 $7,972 +$380 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7,592 $7,061 −$531 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7,592 $6,150 −$1,442 (-19%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $5,561 $6,148 +$588 (+11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,796 $4,874 +$1,078 (+28%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7,592 $4,783 −$2,809 (-37%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7,592 $4,328 −$3,265 (-43%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7,592 $3,872 −$3,720 (-49%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7,592 $3,872 −$3,720 (-49%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 89¢ 81¢ $3,972 $3,636 −$336 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,796 $3,303 −$493 (-13%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7,592 $2,961 −$4,631 (-61%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,333 $2,300 −$1,033 (-31%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7,592 $2,050 −$5,542 (-73%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7,166 $1,505 −$5,661 (-79%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7,592 $1,139 −$6,453 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $23,043 −$23,396 -102%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 12 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7,592 −$7,592 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 12 $123,264 +$1,570 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic Jun 12 $891 −$891 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $214 +$1,051 +492%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $8,175 −$3,895 -48%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 12 $315 −$3 -1%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $106,000 −$106,000 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3,222 +$5,738 +178%
Gwangju: Liam Broady vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 12 $10,031 −$10,031 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Anastasia Potapova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $7 −$4 -64%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Jun 12 $21,061 −$21,061 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 12 $59,773 −$59,773 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $262 −$262 -100%
Ostrava: Jonas Forejtek vs Hynek Barton Jun 12 $6,961 −$7,014 -101%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jun 12 $2,884 −$2,884 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $336 −$336 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $2,595 −$1,946 -75%
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $40,428 −$40,428 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $8,900 −$8,900 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $37,732 −$31,265 -83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $1,306 −$99 -8%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,088 −$2,088 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 12 $162 +$165 +102%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 12 $11,676 −$11,676 -100%
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $881 +$34 +4%
Madrid Open: Xinyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $171,672 −$171,678 -100%
Will Orlando City SC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $14,612 −$14,612 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 12 $8,462 −$8,462 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $26,019 −$34,699 -133%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $95,791 −$95,791 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 12 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $5,801 −$5,801 -100%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $18,990 −$25,646 -135%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $70 +$3,152 +4534%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Jun 12 $821 −$821 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Jun 12 $31,726 −$31,726 -100%
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina Svitolina Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 12 $25,397 −$25,397 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$328,016
other 31% +$166,675
politics 0% +$588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3,892 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $168 3d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $70 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $61 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $211 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $65 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $692 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $99 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $283 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $486 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $94 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 418 -35.6% -41.7% 8% 7% -94.8%
≤30d 455 -34.0% -40.3% 11% 10% -86.6%
≤90d 507 -24.4% -31.6% 14% 14% -69.4%
all 507 -24.4% -31.6% 14% 14% -69.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover109.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 14% -69.4%
10% -38.1% 12% -72.3%
15% ← realistic here -44.1% 12% -75.0%
20% -49.6% 10% -77.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295,872.48 · official $295,940.71 (match) · 3500 history records