Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a2d…76e3 sports 1505 markets active 9h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%579W / 897L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$27
14 days+$20
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$127
other 16% +$188
world 0% −$12
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 48% +2.0%
≤30d 107 +8.7% -1.7% 42% 42% -3.9%
≤90d 422 -7.8% -16.6% 39% 38% -9.5%
all 1476 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 39% -10.7%
10% -21.0% 38% -19.2%
15% -28.7% 38% -27.0%
20% -35.7% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses579 / 897
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1476 / 1505
History coverage165d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1476 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 +$6 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $4 +$9 +223%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $19 +$21 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +88%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 $0 -11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $10 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 35h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $6 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $6 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 99¢ $13 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 55¢ $5 3d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 59¢ $5 3d
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY No 59¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2488 history records