Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2A 0x2a2e…8086 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$14 (+13%) realized +$10 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown84%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1

7 days+$10

14 days−$1

30 days+$9

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+36.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+136.5%	+114.0%	75%	75%	+59.1%
≤30d	9	+50.7%	+36.4%	56%	44%	+4.0%
≤90d	9	+50.7%	+36.4%	56%	44%	+4.0%
all	9	+50.7%	+36.4%	56%	44%	+4.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.4%	44%	+4.0%
10%	+23.3%	44%	-6.0%
15%	+11.4%	44%	-15.0%
20%	+0.5%	33%	-23.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage

Net worth$47

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)9 / 16

History coverage45d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown84%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	No	80¢	89¢	$12	$13	+$1 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	11¢	$8	$11	+$3 (+34%)
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$9	$6	−$2 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$5	$6	+$0 (+9%)
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$1	$2	+$1 (+86%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+44%
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+93%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on	Jun 13	$8	−$8	-100%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti	Jun 12	$3	+$16	+509%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on	Jun 08	$1	−$1	-95%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?	Jun 08	$7	−$1	-22%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify	Jun 07	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	Jun 07	$19	+$2	+9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$8	+$10	+124%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$2	36m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	23h
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	SELL Yes	14¢	$1	23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$6	4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$6	4d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on	BUY No	16¢	$3	7d
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	SELL No	86¢	$3	7d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on	BUY No	13¢	$2	7d
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	SELL No	85¢	$2	7d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on	BUY No	31¢	$4	8d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	8d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	8d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	8d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?	SELL Yes	27¢	$5	8d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti	BUY No	16¢	$3	9d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	9d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?	BUY Yes	33¢	$7	9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	SELL Yes	83¢	$20	9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	BUY Yes	76¢	$19	11d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	44¢	$8	41d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	42d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	42d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	42d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	42d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	5¢	$8	43d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	43d
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	43d
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	BUY No	80¢	$16	44d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.86 · official $46.41 (match) · 38 history records