Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a30…a8d3 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$437 (+11%) realized +$456 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 27L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$69
14 days+$378
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$423
sports 47% +$112
crypto 3% −$79
finance 3% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.5% -17.2% 54% 54% -0.5%
≤30d 61 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 51% +6.2%
≤90d 61 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 51% +6.2%
all 62 -4.3% -13.4% 56% 50% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 50% +2.5%
10% -21.7% 44% -7.3%
15% -29.2% 42% -16.3%
20% -36.2% 31% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$456
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 27
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage235d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $129 $112 −$17 (-13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 +$48 +16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $54 +$28 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +198%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$9 +180%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $217 +$108 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $110 +$9 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 14 $18 +$46 +251%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $153 +$62 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $101 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 29h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.80 · official $230.80 (match) · 128 history records