Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a34…ab72 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,268 (+61%) realized +$1,268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,133
other 16% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +61.6% +46.2% 100% 100% +44.9%
≤30d 8 +61.6% +46.2% 100% 100% +44.9%
≤90d 8 +61.6% +46.2% 100% 100% +44.9%
all 8 +61.6% +46.2% 100% 100% +44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.2% 100% +44.9%
10% +32.2% 100% +31.0%
15% +19.5% 75% +18.3%
20% +7.8% 50% +6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $321 +$111 +35%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $217 +$103 +48%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $253 +$163 +64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $191 +$62 +32%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $379 +$213 +56%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $298 +$257 +86%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $225 +$98 +43%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $185 +$238 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $432 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $321 3h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $321 5h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 67¢ $217 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $416 8h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $253 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $253 29h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 75¢ $191 42h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $592 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 73¢ $157 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $555 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $298 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $100 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $122 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $323 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $225 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $423 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 43¢ $185 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records