Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a35…2c91 tech 8 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$14
economics 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 8 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,006 −$13 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $18 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $498 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $18 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $502 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $20 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $498 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $20 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $502 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $500 5d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $30 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $502 6d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $30 6d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records