Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a35…34fc crypto 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%77W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$66
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +9.9% -0.5% 57% 57% -24.0%
≤30d 143 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 52% -9.5%
≤90d 143 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 52% -9.5%
all 143 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 52% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 52% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 52% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 51% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 51% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses77 / 66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Down 51¢ 92¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Down 46¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $65 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $46 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.93 · official $8.93 (match) · 227 history records