Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a37…e030 world 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%46W / 76L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$18
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$13
politics 18% $0
other 17% +$2
sports 10% +$7
finance 3% +$10
crypto 1% −$25
tech 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 33 -0.7% -10.2% 30% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 52 +37.9% +24.7% 35% 4% -9.6%
all 122 +15.2% +4.3% 38% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -5.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -14.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -23.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses46 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage404d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $158 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $158 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $217 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $107 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $144 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $502 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $139 +$2 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $138 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $19 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $290 +$4 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $155 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $140 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $137 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $159 −$24 -15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $352 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $356 −$2 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $277 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $176 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $298 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $537 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $178 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $162 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $141 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $335 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $178 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $142 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $14 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $224 −$6 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $355 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $105 +$12 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $85 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $153 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $155 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $145 +$10 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $83 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $510 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $87 −$5 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 24 $95 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $190 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $250 +$8 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,040 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $503 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $158 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $158 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $9 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $149 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $158 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $78 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $78 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $61 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $22 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $36 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $43 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $144 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $144 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $39 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $105 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $144 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $144 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $111 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $95 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $46 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $139 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $98 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $138 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $124 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records