Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a37…0bd4 world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 18% +$1
sports 16% −$10
politics 16% +$4
economics 1% $0
weather 0% −$14
crypto 0% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 1% -9.6%
all 83 -4.0% -13.2% 35% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 7% -10.0%
10% -21.5% 6% -18.6%
15% -29.1% 4% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage527d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $32 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $92 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $123 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $38 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $68 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $32 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $79 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 36m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $12 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $28 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $1 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $30 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $2 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $0.00 · 359 history records