Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a37…3fe5 sports 31 markets active 4d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,100 (-7%) realized −$1,100 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$338
other 21% −$649
politics 1% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.8% -19.3% 67% 67% -30.8%
≤30d 3 -10.8% -19.3% 67% 67% -30.8%
≤90d 30 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 43% -15.8%
all 31 -5.4% -14.4% 68% 42% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 42% -16.2%
10% -22.6% 29% -24.3%
15% -30.0% 16% -31.6%
20% -36.9% 10% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$816) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$263 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage90d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +43%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 14 $906 −$906 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $730 +$176 +24%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 04 $700 +$30 +4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $600 −$498 -83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $500 +$71 +14%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $100 −$17 -17%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $1,223 −$70 -6%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Mar 29 $1,196 +$27 +2%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 29 $1,102 +$95 +9%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 29 $1,020 +$82 +8%
Spurs vs. Bucks Mar 28 $949 +$70 +7%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $819 +$130 +16%
Kings vs. Magic Mar 27 $816 +$3 +0%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $702 +$114 +16%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $88 +$5 +5%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $500 −$455 -91%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 24 $327 −$327 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 24 $83 +$5 +6%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $200 −$117 -58%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 22 $252 +$75 +30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $566 +$141 +25%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $374 +$192 +51%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $255 +$119 +47%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $219 +$35 +16%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $145 +$75 +52%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $80 +$65 +81%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 20 $207 −$127 -61%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Mar 17 $303 −$96 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $19 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 6d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 54¢ $906 71d
Raptors vs. Celtics SELL Celtics 100¢ $906 72d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 80¢ $730 73d
Wizards vs. Heat SELL Heat 99¢ $730 74d
Wizards vs. Heat BUY Heat 95¢ $700 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 11¢ $102 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 64¢ $600 74d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? SELL Yes 88¢ $571 75d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? SELL Yes 48¢ $83 75d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 75d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 75d
76ers vs. Wizards SELL 76ers 85¢ $1,153 76d
76ers vs. Wizards BUY 76ers 90¢ $1,223 77d
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 95¢ $1,223 79d
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 93¢ $1,196 79d
Clippers vs. Bucks SELL Clippers 100¢ $1,197 79d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 92¢ $1,102 80d
Kings vs. Hawks SELL Hawks 94¢ $1,102 80d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 87¢ $1,020 80d
Spurs vs. Bucks SELL Spurs 100¢ $1,020 80d
Spurs vs. Bucks BUY Spurs 93¢ $949 81d
Clippers vs. Pacers SELL Clippers 91¢ $949 81d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 79¢ $410 82d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 78¢ $409 82d
Kings vs. Magic SELL Magic 91¢ $819 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records