Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a3b…a8fd world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$5
other 17% −$11
politics 10% $0
sports 10% +$9
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 76 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 1% -9.4%
all 95 -1.0% -10.4% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 63
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage533d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -12%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $45 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $49 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $185 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $123 +$3 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $90 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $130 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $53 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $85 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $49 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $82 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $38 +$8 +20%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $36 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $33 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $46 $0 -1%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $2 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $117 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $44 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $45 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $44 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $30 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $30 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $16 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $16 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $11 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records