Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a40…1c7e other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$121 (-4%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$41
14 days−$306
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$300
world 11% +$116
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.7% -21.9% 0% 0% -21.7%
≤30d 13 -86.7% -88.0% 0% 0% -58.2%
≤90d 17 -73.5% -76.0% 12% 12% -25.0%
all 31 -44.2% -49.5% 32% 16% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 16% -14.7%
10% -54.4% 10% -22.9%
15% -58.8% 6% -30.3%
20% -62.8% 3% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$26 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage189d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 26 $202 −$26 -13%
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 26 $102 −$15 -14%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $105 −$100 -96%
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 16 $200 −$115 -58%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 14 $700 +$95 +14%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 31 $400 +$91 +23%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 26 $60 −$1 -2%
Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 23 $205 −$9 -4%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 23 $300 +$117 +39%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 12 $519 +$47 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $5 −$3 -60%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $6 −$1 -17%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Feb 03 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 22 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 19 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 19 $3 +$2 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 77¢ $176 1h
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 62¢ $88 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $202 6h
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 12d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 31d
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 27¢ $85 71d
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 72d
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $795 72d
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $700 80d
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $491 87d
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? SELL Yes 56¢ $100 91d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $59 91d
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 92d
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 81¢ $400 92d
Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 80¢ $196 95d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $417 95d
Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $205 99d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 102d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records