Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a43…c4a5
crypto · 41 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$71 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$75 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$510
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage149d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 4 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$240
14 days+$240
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $425 $422 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Hawks 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 36¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Lakers Lakers 28¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $482 +$118 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $279 +$122 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $13 +$9 +68%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 01 $38 −$37 -99%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 01 $23 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 10 $18 +$3 +17%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 16 $45 +$46 +102%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 16 $6 +$2 +39%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 16 $5 +$4 +89%
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $5 +$7 +138%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jan 16 $9 −$1 -16%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 15 $37 +$42 +113%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 15 $21 +$17 +79%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 15 $20 +$31 +153%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 15 $25 +$24 +98%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 15 $21 +$7 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$236
crypto 24% −$86
sports 10% −$82
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 17m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 18m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 27m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 27m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 44m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 44m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $279 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 48¢ $321 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $400 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $279 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 18d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers SELL Cavaliers 100¢ $22 32d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $3 32d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $5 32d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 58¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $38 103d
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Lakers 61¢ $23 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.0% +21.3% 100% 100% +19.0%
≤30d 3 -10.6% -19.1% 67% 67% +18.7%
≤90d 5 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 60% +18.5%
all 37 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 46% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 46% -4.7%
10% -28.8% 41% -13.8%
15% -35.6% 35% -22.1%
20% -41.9% 30% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.93 · official $509.93 (match) · 109 history records