Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a45…5f2e other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$221 (+29%) realized +$219 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$58
sports 16% +$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +73.0% +56.5% 67% 67% +29.1%
≤30d 9 +73.0% +56.5% 67% 67% +29.1%
≤90d 9 +73.0% +56.5% 67% 67% +29.1%
all 9 +73.0% +56.5% 67% 67% +29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.5% 67% +29.1%
10% +41.5% 67% +16.7%
15% +27.8% 67% +5.4%
20% +15.3% 67% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$67 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$219
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +249%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$63 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.95 · official $251.96 (match) · 20 history records