Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a47…a1b1 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-8%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%107W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$229
14 days−$229
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$229
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -13.5% -21.8% 53% 49% -25.4%
≤30d 202 -13.5% -21.7% 53% 49% -25.4%
≤90d 202 -13.5% -21.7% 53% 49% -25.4%
all 202 -13.5% -21.7% 53% 49% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 49% -25.4%
10% -29.2% 43% -32.5%
15% -36.1% 35% -39.0%
20% -42.3% 28% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses107 / 95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage19d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.92 · official $3.92 (match) · 429 history records