Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2a49…737a sports 1123 markets active 5h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$178 (+1%) realized +$209 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%720W / 397L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$82
14 days−$22
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$145
other 16% +$53
crypto 11% −$115
world 1% +$69
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 60% -18.3%
≤30d 206 -6.5% -15.4% 58% 52% -4.6%
≤90d 886 -9.0% -17.7% 63% 52% -11.7%
all 1117 -8.7% -17.4% 64% 52% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 52% -9.3%
10% -25.3% 33% -18.0%
15% -32.5% 19% -25.9%
20% -39.1% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$209
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses720 / 397
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1117 / 1123
History coverage362d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 71¢ 46¢ $112 $72 −$40 (-36%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 61¢ 92¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 47¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+172%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -66%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -27%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$7 +36%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +146%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +46%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$9 +127%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +188%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$27 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $115 −$94 -81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -35%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $2 $0 +30%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$8 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $9 +$3 +28%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 8h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 8h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 13h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 100¢ $3 17h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 86¢ $3 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 33h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 69¢ $3 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 36h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 82¢ $4 38h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 87¢ $3 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.13 · official $92.14 (match) · 3203 history records