Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2a52…5e73 crypto 1348 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%828W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day64.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$70
14 days−$90
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$160
other 4% −$28
weather 4% −$25
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -17.9% -25.7% 41% 25% -21.3%
≤30d 998 -12.6% -20.9% 55% 35% -20.8%
≤90d 1348 -7.2% -16.0% 61% 43% -16.0%
all 1348 -7.2% -16.0% 61% 43% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 43% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 28% -24.0%
15% -31.4% 15% -31.3%
20% -38.1% 7% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses828 / 520
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1348 / 1348
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1348 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records