Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a55…ffaa other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,916 (+3%) realized +$5,907 · open +$2,009
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate76%66W / 21L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$2,399per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$12,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$141
14 days+$141
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$4,074
world 47% +$1,352
politics 1% +$371
sports 1% +$2,116
economics 0% +$61
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.1% -13.2% 33% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 6 +172.0% +146.1% 67% 50% -3.3%
≤90d 9 +115.5% +95.0% 78% 33% -8.8%
all 87 +14.2% +3.3% 76% 16% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 16% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -16.2%
15% -15.6% 7% -24.3%
20% -23.9% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,196) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$57 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.12 per $1 lost it wins $7.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$12,849
Realized+$5,907
Unrealized+$2,009
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses66 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions22
Markets (closed)87 / 109
History coverage214d
Avg bet$2,399
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $6,119 $7,700 +$1,581 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2,700 $3,150 +$450 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,229 $1,211 −$18 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $543 $535 −$9 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+155%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 55¢ 38¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-31%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 93¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 93¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 30¢ 20¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 85¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 21¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,567 +$156 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $345 −$9 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $39 −$6 -16%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $8 +$2 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$9 +122%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $6 +$54 +900%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1,828 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $20,961 +$9 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $11 $0 +4%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 202 Feb 26 $5,498 +$582 +11%
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $16 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $97 −$21 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Feb 23 $1,062 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Feb 23 $8,047 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Feb 23 $8,027 +$20 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Feb 23 $944 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $5,368 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 21 $8,186 −$81 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $7,056 +$157 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $954 +$19 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $1,307 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $9,162 −$447 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $8,446 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $8,362 +$85 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $7,156 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $4,191 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Feb 17 $368 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 17 $21,627 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $8,482 $0 +0%
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany Feb 14 $118 −$118 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Feb 14 $560 +$440 +79%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia Feb 14 $718 +$1,759 +245%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 14 $450 −$16 -4%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 09 $1,040 +$327 +31%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Feb 09 $249 +$50 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $3,106 +$62 +2%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 15 $802 −$75 -9%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 15 $620 +$41 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 15 $3,146 +$98 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 15 $385 +$35 +9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $7 $0 -7%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $156 +$3 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 15 $725 +$5 +1%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 15 $770 +$173 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 14 $238 +$23 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 13 $799 +$60 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $175 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $218 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $100 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $65 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $458 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2,777 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2,846 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $60 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $72 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $150 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $87 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $300 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $500 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $126 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 12¢ $336 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,849.27 · official $12,849.26 (match) · 1855 history records