Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a56…b023 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-10%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$42
crypto 27% +$21
sports 6% −$19
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.9% -5.0% 52% 43% -18.7%
≤30d 21 +4.9% -5.0% 52% 43% -18.7%
≤90d 21 +4.9% -5.0% 52% 43% -18.7%
all 21 +4.9% -5.0% 52% 43% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 43% -18.7%
10% -14.1% 24% -26.5%
15% -22.4% 24% -33.6%
20% -30.0% 19% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 42¢ 39¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$10 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +137%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$12 +115%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $49 +$7 +15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $33 −$15 -45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$19 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $10 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $22 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.17 · official $39.99 (match) · 52 history records