Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a58…9b9c politics 103 markets active 1d ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,810 (+1%) realized +$1,810 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,526per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$30
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$97
other 42% −$74
culture 3% −$8
sports 3% +$1,951
economics 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -2.1% -11.4% 7% 4% -8.5%
all 102 -2.1% -11.4% 7% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -8.5%
10% -19.9% 4% -17.2%
15% -27.6% 4% -25.2%
20% -34.7% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,656) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$3 · ×95.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.33 per $1 lost it wins $7.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$780
Realized+$1,810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,526
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $780 $780 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,934 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,887 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,591 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $3,090 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,990 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 07 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,468 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $4,394 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 04 $542 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $748 +$2 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $917 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,918 −$4 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $4,337 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,936 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $2,818 −$4 -0%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 21 $61 +$152 +250%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,764 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $2,790 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $4,530 −$7 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,607 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $3,032 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 15 $1,683 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $2,298 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $3,069 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $264 24h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $264 26h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 26h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 29h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 32h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 33h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $422 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $423 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $780 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,570 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,571 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,500 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,503 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,505 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,507 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,472 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,474 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,503 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,505 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,597 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,600 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,470 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,472 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,188 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,613 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,615 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,667 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,670 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,617 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $780.11 · official $780.11 (match) · 314 history records