Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2a59…60c4 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$4
world 40% +$15
finance 7% −$5
politics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 17% -7.3%
≤30d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 55% 18% -7.2%
≤90d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 55% 18% -7.2%
all 35 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 6% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -7.9%
10% -17.3% 0% -16.7%
15% -25.3% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage365d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $38 +$5 +12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $3 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $14 +$1 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $56 −$5 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $65 +$9 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $24 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 26 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Daniil Medvedev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $38 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $23 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $46 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $40 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $28 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.84 · official $42.84 (match) · 146 history records