Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a60…67b4 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,263 (+111%) realized +$8,472 · open −$209
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$223
7 days+$223
14 days+$221
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$8,434
other 33% −$114
sports 1% −$103
economics 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.2% +10.6% 100% 100% +7.9%
≤30d 6 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 33% -9.9%
≤90d 6 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 33% -9.9%
all 9 +4.9% -5.1% 56% 44% +104.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 44% +104.8%
10% -14.2% 33% +85.2%
15% -22.5% 22% +67.3%
20% -30.1% 22% +50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +126% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,733 vs −$72 · ×24.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.29 per $1 lost it wins $30.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized+$8,472
Unrealized−$209
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage396d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $337 $262 −$75 (-22%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $297 $215 −$83 (-28%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $169 $117 −$51 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $432 +$146 +34%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $724 +$76 +11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $160 −$9 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $218 +$7 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $129 −$126 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $697 +$814 +117%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $4,121 +$7,620 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $152 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $102 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $173 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $339 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 15h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $318 30h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $147 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $99 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $117 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $319 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $152 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $128 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $57 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $58 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.72 · official $593.72 (match) · 93 history records