Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a63…f3ad crypto 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,498 (-10%) realized −$1,514 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%68W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$791
7 days−$836
14 days−$1,466
30 days−$2,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,768
other 2% −$34
sports 1% −$80
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% −$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +19.6% +8.2% 33% 30% -22.8%
≤30d 144 -32.3% -38.8% 25% 22% -31.6%
≤90d 292 -19.9% -27.5% 23% 21% -27.9%
all 292 -19.9% -27.5% 23% 21% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 21% -27.9%
10% -34.5% 20% -34.8%
15% -40.8% 17% -41.1%
20% -46.6% 17% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$42 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1,514
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses68 / 224
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)292 / 293
History coverage80d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 25¢ 42¢ $23 $39 +$16 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$29 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $276 −$266 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $49 −$37 -76%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $308 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $186 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $163 −$23 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $279 −$266 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $284 +$330 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $282 −$266 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$476 +1938%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $190 −$179 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $561 −$532 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $731 +$176 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $415 +$493 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $275 +$222 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $277 +$158 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $165 +$23 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $235 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$17 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$30 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$32 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $24 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $210 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $138 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $53 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $24 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $138 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $138 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $24 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $288 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $24 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $64 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $78 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $189 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $24 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $138 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $214 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $138 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $140 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $139 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $70 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $141 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $138 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $138 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $142 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $140 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.10 · official $40.02 (match) · 890 history records