Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a64…51d1 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$727 (+2%) realized +$607 · open +$120
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%36W / 17L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$6,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$513
7 days−$1,831
14 days−$1,828
30 days−$1,828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$1,817
other 38% −$931
sports 1% −$85
world 1% +$30
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -34.2% -40.5% 48% 35% -38.5%
≤30d 24 -31.6% -38.1% 50% 38% -38.4%
≤90d 24 -31.6% -38.1% 50% 38% -38.4%
all 53 -10.9% -19.4% 68% 49% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 49% -7.7%
10% -27.1% 28% -16.5%
15% -34.2% 21% -24.6%
20% -40.6% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$202 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$6,914
Realized+$607
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses36 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions18
Markets (closed)53 / 71
History coverage601d
Avg bet$600
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1,640 $1,646 +$6 (+0%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1,321 $1,370 +$49 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $1,000 $983 −$17 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $600 $614 +$14 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $405 $432 +$27 (+7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $270 $292 +$22 (+8%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $285 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $219 $254 +$34 (+16%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 77¢ $228 $231 +$3 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $83 $84 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 67¢ $71 $67 −$4 (-6%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 62¢ $67 $62 −$6 (-8%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Under $16 $12 −$4 (-24%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Under $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $242 +$116 +48%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 +$9 +9%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,447 +$172 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $251 +$155 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$96 +47%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 −$39 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,403 −$1,400 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 09 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $200 +$31 +16%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 06 $200 −$86 -43%
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? May 06 $300 +$57 +19%
Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 28 $200 +$59 +29%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 20 $500 −$11 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 20 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $100 +$37 +37%
CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R) Dec 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points? Dec 11 $4,010 +$777 +19%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 02 $599 +$106 +18%
Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points? Nov 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Harris win New Mexico by 6+ points? Nov 27 $500 +$329 +66%
Jones vs. Miocic Nov 17 $100 +$19 +19%
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? Nov 17 $200 +$117 +59%
Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Nov 13 $10,000 +$18 +0%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 13 $2,864 +$143 +5%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 10 $200 +$27 +14%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $100 +$43 +43%
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election Nov 09 $500 +$95 +19%
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $617 +$46 +8%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 09 $1,173 +$248 +21%
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 09 $1,400 +$224 +16%
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? Nov 09 $200 +$85 +42%
Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? Nov 09 $1,577 +$37 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $365 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $365 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $48 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 34h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,914.22 · official $6,914.22 (match) · 179 history records