Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a66…f00d sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$92 (-11%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$82
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$60
other 25% −$107
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -41.0% -46.6% 30% 30% -25.9%
≤30d 17 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 29% -28.0%
≤90d 19 -47.9% -52.9% 26% 26% -28.5%
all 19 -47.9% -52.9% 26% 26% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.9% 26% -28.5%
10% -57.4% 26% -35.4%
15% -61.5% 26% -41.6%
20% -65.3% 21% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$32 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage61d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $36 −$35 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $41 −$41 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $61 +$48 +79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$59 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $117 +$54 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $114 −$112 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $95 +$82 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 −$44 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -54%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $57 +$35 +62%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 26 $9 −$4 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records