Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a66…345a other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$2
other 29% −$2
politics 12% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 49 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage269d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $11 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $34 −$2 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $12 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $30 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 08 $9 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $6 +$1 +16%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $7 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $18 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 36h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $32 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $34 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 155 history records