Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a68…a050 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 26% +$4
sports 10% −$4
economics 8% −$1
politics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.3% -8.3% 30% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 22 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 32 +0.3% -9.3% 41% 3% -9.6%
all 46 -0.0% -9.5% 41% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage535d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $59 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $69 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $141 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $38 −$4 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $78 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $73 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $177 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $379 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49% or more on February 14? Mar 04 $11 −$6 -53%
West Virginia vs. Baylor Feb 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhau Feb 15 $3 +$4 +167%
Liberty vs. New Mexico State Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Tennessee State vs. Eastern Illinois Feb 14 $5 +$4 +92%
VCU vs. George Washington Feb 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Dec 30 $3 $0 -9%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 30 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $41 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $41 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records