Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a69…ddb7 crypto 299 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (554 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-1%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%135W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day554.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$173
tech 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (554 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -2.5% -11.8% 47% 45% -12.8%
≤30d 299 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 42% -11.4%
≤90d 299 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 42% -11.4%
all 299 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 42% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover554.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 42% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 40% -19.9%
15% -29.6% 38% -27.6%
20% -36.5% 35% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses135 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day554.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$19 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$17 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$16 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$6 +614%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$18 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$10 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$15 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$16 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$75 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$17 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.99 · official $84.99 (match) · 3500 history records