Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a6c…f348 sports 284 markets active 5d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$234 (-16%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%114W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$63
14 days−$216
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$248
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -5.8% -14.7% 43% 23% -25.2%
≤30d 263 -19.7% -27.3% 40% 32% -26.5%
≤90d 263 -19.7% -27.3% 40% 32% -26.5%
all 284 -20.1% -27.7% 40% 32% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 32% -26.6%
10% -34.6% 27% -33.6%
15% -40.9% 23% -40.0%
20% -46.7% 16% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses114 / 170
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 284
History coverage178d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (151 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$5 -55%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$1 -10%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$2 -40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -19%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$1 +4%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $6 −$1 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$2 -40%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +15%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $34 −$4 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$2 -61%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$1 +5%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $16 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $23 $0 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$1 -31%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 27¢ $3 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 39¢ $1 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 61¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Donstu Esports 82¢ $7 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 61¢ $1 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 38¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 31¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 36¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 73¢ $1 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 73¢ $1 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 70¢ $2 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Anubis Gaming 51¢ $0 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Anubis Gaming 50¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 48¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Anubis Gaming 42¢ $3 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 40¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 37¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $1 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 NORD 81¢ $2 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD 79¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 62¢ $2 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 44¢ $1 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 NORD 79¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 71¢ $1 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD 75¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 881 history records