Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2a6c…9f19 crypto 77 markets active 2d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$818 (+7%) realized +$818 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%43W / 34L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,811
7 days−$1,811
14 days−$742
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$126
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -45.8% -51.0% 40% 33% -92.1%
≤30d 77 -17.9% -25.7% 56% 49% -10.5%
≤90d 77 -17.9% -25.7% 56% 49% -10.5%
all 77 -17.9% -25.7% 56% 49% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 49% -10.5%
10% -32.8% 38% -19.0%
15% -39.3% 26% -26.9%
20% -45.3% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$112 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$818
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses43 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage28d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$20 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$22 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $316 +$60 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $389 +$60 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $537 +$455 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $793 +$453 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $274 −$274 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $734 +$56 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $157 −$16 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $215 +$175 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $535 +$333 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $536 +$373 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $323 +$281 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $320 +$309 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $107 +$47 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $160 +$24 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $214 +$141 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $108 +$159 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $394 +$89 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $133 +$37 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $107 +$58 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $107 +$53 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $277 −$64 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $107 +$50 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $214 +$95 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $212 +$48 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $22 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 2¢ $18 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 3¢ $22 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,049 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 42¢ $540 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 78¢ $74 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 47¢ $269 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 55¢ $268 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 83¢ $315 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 80¢ $316 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 69¢ $29 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 58¢ $321 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 60¢ $177 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 61¢ $267 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 31¢ $381 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No 17¢ $274 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 3¢ $39 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records