Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2a6e…c5c1 weather 123 markets active 7h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%60W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$27
weather 39% −$5
sports 4% +$15
other 1% +$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -9.6% -18.2% 61% 45% -17.9%
≤30d 72 +14.1% +3.3% 58% 46% -8.1%
≤90d 122 +11.9% +1.3% 49% 42% -12.1%
all 122 +11.9% +1.3% 49% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 42% -12.1%
10% -8.4% 32% -20.5%
15% -17.3% 28% -28.2%
20% -25.4% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses60 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage67d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$10 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.06 · official $10.06 (match) · 245 history records